Housing Crash Risk Index
Metro areas ranked by risk of price corrections based on market fundamentals.
1
Boone, NC
NC
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
81%
Below List
116 days
Pending
2
Breckenridge, CO
CO
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
77%
Below List
89 days
Pending
3
Brownsville, TX
TX
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
77%
Below List
116 days
Pending
4
Cape Coral, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
83%
Below List
118 days
Pending
5
Crossville, TN
TN
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
75%
Below List
109 days
Pending
6
Daphne, AL
AL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
76%
Below List
92 days
Pending
7
Edwards, CO
CO
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
77%
Below List
96 days
Pending
8
Georgetown, SC
SC
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
78%
Below List
92 days
Pending
9
Heber, UT
UT
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
78%
Below List
87 days
Pending
10
Hilton Head Island, SC
SC
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
78%
Below List
80 days
Pending
11
Kahului, HI
HI
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
78%
Below List
152 days
Pending
12
Key West, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
89%
Below List
142 days
Pending
13
Miami, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
78%
Below List
99 days
Pending
14
Morehead City, NC
NC
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
76%
Below List
76 days
Pending
15
Myrtle Beach, SC
SC
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
81%
Below List
99 days
Pending
16
Naples, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
89%
Below List
121 days
Pending
17
North Port, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
81%
Below List
90 days
Pending
18
Panama City, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
79%
Below List
118 days
Pending
19
Punta Gorda, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
80%
Below List
112 days
Pending
20
Sebastian, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
82%
Below List
90 days
Pending
21
Sebring, FL
FL
5/10
Elevated Risk
N/A
Price YoY
76%
Below List
104 days
Pending
22
Athens, GA
GA
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
63%
Below List
89 days
Pending
23
Austin, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
66%
Below List
89 days
Pending
24
Bowling Green, KY
KY
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
69%
Below List
98 days
Pending
25
Bozeman, MT
MT
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
65%
Below List
62 days
Pending
26
Brunswick, GA
GA
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
74%
Below List
81 days
Pending
27
Charleston, SC
SC
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
66%
Below List
84 days
Pending
28
College Station, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
67%
Below List
96 days
Pending
29
Corpus Christi, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
62%
Below List
109 days
Pending
30
Crestview, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
71%
Below List
106 days
Pending
31
Decatur, AL
AL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
69 days
Pending
32
Deltona, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
72%
Below List
87 days
Pending
33
Des Moines, IA
IA
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
61%
Below List
62 days
Pending
34
Flagstaff, AZ
AZ
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
65%
Below List
70 days
Pending
35
Florence, AL
AL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
62%
Below List
91 days
Pending
36
Gainesville, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
73%
Below List
75 days
Pending
37
Gainesville, GA
GA
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
65%
Below List
81 days
Pending
38
Granbury, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
66%
Below List
79 days
Pending
39
Gulfport, MS
MS
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
67%
Below List
78 days
Pending
40
Hattiesburg, MS
MS
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
75 days
Pending
41
Hilo, HI
HI
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
68%
Below List
87 days
Pending
42
Homosassa Springs, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
73%
Below List
96 days
Pending
43
Houston, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
79 days
Pending
44
Jackson, TN
TN
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
64 days
Pending
45
Jacksonville, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
67%
Below List
81 days
Pending
46
Jonesboro, AR
AR
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
61%
Below List
74 days
Pending
47
Lake Havasu City, AZ
AZ
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
66%
Below List
73 days
Pending
48
Lakeland, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
62%
Below List
81 days
Pending
49
Las Cruces, NM
NM
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
63%
Below List
82 days
Pending
50
London, KY
KY
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
73%
Below List
82 days
Pending
51
Longview, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
65%
Below List
86 days
Pending
52
Macon, GA
GA
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
62%
Below List
81 days
Pending
53
McAllen, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
132 days
Pending
54
Morristown, TN
TN
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
72 days
Pending
55
New Orleans, LA
LA
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
66%
Below List
97 days
Pending
56
Ocala, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
72%
Below List
97 days
Pending
57
Ocean City, NJ
NJ
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
73 days
Pending
58
Orlando, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
66%
Below List
71 days
Pending
59
Palm Bay, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
72%
Below List
66 days
Pending
60
Pensacola, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
61%
Below List
68 days
Pending
61
Phoenix, AZ
AZ
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
61%
Below List
64 days
Pending
62
Pinehurst, NC
NC
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
61%
Below List
75 days
Pending
63
Port St. Lucie, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
74%
Below List
95 days
Pending
64
Prescott Valley, AZ
AZ
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
68%
Below List
75 days
Pending
65
Salisbury, MD
MD
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
76 days
Pending
66
San Angelo, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
61%
Below List
89 days
Pending
67
San Antonio, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
61%
Below List
88 days
Pending
68
Sevierville, TN
TN
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
73%
Below List
95 days
Pending
69
Sherman, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
68%
Below List
97 days
Pending
70
Show Low, AZ
AZ
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
74%
Below List
93 days
Pending
71
St. George, UT
UT
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
80 days
Pending
72
Tampa, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
67%
Below List
71 days
Pending
73
The Villages, FL
FL
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
82%
Below List
60 days
Pending
74
Tyler, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
67%
Below List
88 days
Pending
75
Waco, TX
TX
4/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
64%
Below List
74 days
Pending
76
Atlanta, GA
GA
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
54%
Below List
71 days
Pending
77
Atlantic City, NJ
NJ
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
57%
Below List
68 days
Pending
78
Auburn, AL
AL
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
55%
Below List
66 days
Pending
79
Bangor, ME
ME
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
63%
Below List
51 days
Pending
80
Barnstable Town, MA
MA
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
61%
Below List
48 days
Pending
81
Baton Rouge, LA
LA
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
55%
Below List
72 days
Pending
82
Beaumont, TX
TX
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
54%
Below List
62 days
Pending
83
Bend, OR
OR
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
58%
Below List
68 days
Pending
84
Brainerd, MN
MN
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
53%
Below List
66 days
Pending
85
Brenham, TX
TX
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
82%
Below List
0 days
Pending
86
Brookings, OR
OR
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
85%
Below List
0 days
Pending
87
Burlington, IA
IA
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
81%
Below List
0 days
Pending
88
Carbondale, IL
IL
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
65%
Below List
60 days
Pending
89
Charlotte, NC
NC
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
55%
Below List
63 days
Pending
90
Chattanooga, TN
TN
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
58%
Below List
68 days
Pending
91
Cleveland, TN
TN
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
57%
Below List
84 days
Pending
92
Cookeville, TN
TN
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
76%
Below List
0 days
Pending
93
Cullowhee, NC
NC
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
82%
Below List
0 days
Pending
94
Dallas, TX
TX
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
58%
Below List
63 days
Pending
95
Dothan, AL
AL
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
73%
Below List
56 days
Pending
96
Durham, NC
NC
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
56%
Below List
61 days
Pending
97
Effingham, IL
IL
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
79%
Below List
0 days
Pending
98
El Campo, TX
TX
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
77%
Below List
0 days
Pending
99
Eureka, CA
CA
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
60%
Below List
45 days
Pending
100
Florence, SC
SC
3/10
Moderate Risk
N/A
Price YoY
57%
Below List
66 days
Pending
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📊 How We Ranked These
The Crash Risk Index scores metros 0-10 based on four factors: Price Decline (YoY home value changes), Rent Weakness (YoY rent changes), Seller Desperation (% of listings below asking), and Market Slowdown (days to pending). Higher scores indicate greater risk of price corrections.
Price Decline (0-3 pts)
Rent Weakness (0-2 pts)
Seller Pressure (0-3 pts)
Market Speed (0-2 pts)
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a high crash risk score mean?
A score of 7-10 indicates the market is showing multiple warning signs: falling prices, weak rents, desperate sellers, and slow sales. This doesn't guarantee a crash, but suggests caution.
Should I avoid high-risk markets entirely?
Not necessarily. High-risk markets may offer buying opportunities for investors with strong cash reserves who can weather short-term declines.