Real Estate Investing in Tumacacori, Arizona (85640)
Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.
Should you buy in 85640 (Tumacacori, AZ)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.
Multiple negative signals. Better options likely exist nearby.
A middle-of-the-road market. Workable, but the best opportunities may be nearby ZIPs rather than this one.
- High vacancy: 74.3% of homes vacant — above national norms.
- 1-year downturn: Values declined 4.5% in the last year.
- High price-to-rent: Price-to-rent ratio 25.2 — hard to cash-flow at these prices.
• Limited market data — this is a very small market; averages are built from few observations and can swing widely. • Modeled rent — no observed market rent for this ZIP; the figure is estimated from HUD fair-market rent.
What’s happening in Tumacacori, AZ (85640)?
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Market Analysis: 85640 Tumacacori
The 85640 ZIP in Tumacacori, AZ is a local-operator market. Outside capital chasing a $417K entry has to pair deep knowledge with the discount.
The investment case in 85640 is durable only for operators who understand what they are buying. A $417K median suggests accessibility, but management intensity, vacancy drift, and capex surprises are real.
Nearby ZIPs in Tumacacori have seen price recovery that 85640 has not matched. Santa Cruz County data supports the view that the spread is structural rather than temporary.
Demographically, 85640 is a market where tenant selection matters more than unit finishes. Operators who understand that tend to do fine; those who do not tend to learn why the ZIP trades at a discount.
tilts toward the ZIP is not uninvestable, but it is unforgiving. Section 8 landlords, local operators, and specialized value-add funds are the investor types that tend to succeed.
Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Tumacacori:
Market Trends
Home Value History (with trend line)
📊 How Does 85640 Compare?
| Metric | 85640 | Tumacacori | Nogales, AZ | Arizona |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Value | $416,672 | $416,672 | N/A | $419,643 |
| 5-Year CAGR | 2.5% | 2.5% | N/A | 6.5% |
| Avg Rent | $1,377 | $1,377 | N/A | - |
| Cap Rate | 2.6% | 2.6% | - | - |
Similar ZIPs Within 25 Miles
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Landlord Ground Truth
Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 85640 (Tumacacori, AZ). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.
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📊 Market Snapshot
| Home Value | $416,672 |
| Monthly Rent | $1,377 |
| Price-to-Rent | 25.2:1 |
| 1% Rule | ✗ Fails |
💰 Return Metrics
| Gross Yield | 4.0% |
| Cap Rate | 2.6% |
| 5-Year IRR | 5.0% |
📈 Home Appreciation
| 1-Year | -4.5% ▼ |
| 3-Year CAGR | +0.2% ▲ |
| 5-Year CAGR | +2.5% ▲ |
| 10-Year CAGR | +5.7% ▲ |
🏠 Rent Trends
| 1-Year | N/A |
| 3-Year CAGR | N/A |
| 5-Year CAGR | N/A |
The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (2.6%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.
Run an IRR Analysis →⚠️ Risk Signals
Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.
Demographics in 85640
Population: 162
Crime & Safety
Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon
We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.
Expected: Q1 2025
Frequently Asked Questions
How strong are rents in Tumacacori, AZ?
Expect rents around $1,377/mo per month in Tumacacori, AZ. With home values at $417K, the yield math works out to reasonable levels for rental investors.
How strict are landlord regulations in Tumacacori, AZ?
Tumacacori, AZ falls under AZ landlord-tenant law, which is landlord-friendly. That backdrop makes day-to-day property management reasonable.
Do landlords face vacancy issues in Tumacacori, AZ?
Tumacacori, AZ vacancy trends elevated. Investors running standard buy-and-hold plays see reasonable downtime between tenants.
Does a duplex house hack pencil in Tumacacori, AZ?
House hacking in Tumacacori, AZ is reasonable to execute. Prices around $417K and rents of $1,377/mo solid owner-occupant economics.
How strong is Tumacacori, AZ for real estate investors?
Investors tracking Tumacacori, AZ will find a 3.0/5 rating supported by $417K median home values and $1,377/mo rents. That profile suits long-term holders targeting measured returns.
You know 85640 now. You don’t know where it ranks.
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