Real Estate Investing in Nogales, Arizona (85621)
Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.
Should you buy in 85621 (Nogales, AZ)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.
Proceed carefully. Weak appreciation or affordability makes this a harder case for most buyers.
A middle-of-the-road market. Workable, but the best opportunities may be nearby ZIPs rather than this one.
- Elevated vacancy: 11.1% vacancy may signal weakening demand.
- Elevated poverty: 21.5% poverty rate — can affect rent collection.
- Higher unemployment: 7.2% unemployment — tenant risk signal.
- Lower household income: $37,004 median — tenant affordability is tighter.
• Modeled rent — no observed market rent for this ZIP; the figure is estimated from HUD fair-market rent.
What’s happening in Nogales, AZ (85621)?
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Market Analysis: 85621 Nogales
Investors eyeing 85621 need to respect the fundamentals at play. Home values of $222K come alongside slower price movement and elevated management overhead.
From a cash-flow lens, the numbers look inviting — $222K purchase price, 0.0% nominal cap — the work to hit that pro forma in 85621 is substantial and deserves full respect.
Within AZ, ZIP 85621 trails on several market indicators that neighboring Santa Cruz County submarkets outperform. The gap is real and substantial enough to shape underwriting.
Resident income in 85621 sits below the county median. That reality colors rent collection, vacancy, and reinvestment math in ways that outside investors often underestimate.
The 85621 ZIP fits a narrow investor profile — hands-on, patient, and willing to accept that the cap rate on paper is not the cap rate in reality.
Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Nogales:
Property Strategy for 85621
Which property type performs best in this market?
📊 Compare All Property Types →
| Type | Median Value | Est. Rent | Cap Rate | 5yr CAGR | $/Bedroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $155,422 | $1,050 | 4.9% | +7.0% | $77,711 |
| 3BR | $204,747 | $1,460 | 5.1% | +7.2% | $68,249 |
| 4BR | $295,929 | $1,500 | 3.6% | +6.8% | $73,982 |
| 5BR | $380,360 | — | — | +6.7% | $76,072 |
Market Trends
Home Value History (with trend line)
📊 How Does 85621 Compare?
| Metric | 85621 | Nogales | Nogales, AZ | Arizona |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Value | $222,454 | $222,454 | N/A | $419,643 |
| 5-Year CAGR | 4.1% | 4.1% | N/A | 6.5% |
| Avg Rent | $945 | $945 | N/A | - |
| Cap Rate | 3.3% | 3.3% | - | - |
Similar ZIPs Within 25 Miles
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Landlord Ground Truth
Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 85621 (Nogales, AZ). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.
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📊 Market Snapshot
| Home Value | $222,454 |
| Monthly Rent | $945 |
| Price-to-Rent | 19.6:1 |
| 1% Rule | ✗ Fails |
💰 Return Metrics
| Gross Yield | 5.1% |
| Cap Rate | 3.3% |
| 5-Year IRR | 7.5% |
📈 Home Appreciation
| 1-Year | +3.7% ▲ |
| 3-Year CAGR | +2.8% ▲ |
| 5-Year CAGR | +4.1% ▲ |
| 10-Year CAGR | +7.3% ▲ |
🏠 Rent Trends
| 1-Year | N/A |
| 3-Year CAGR | N/A |
| 5-Year CAGR | N/A |
The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (3.3%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.
Run an IRR Analysis →⚠️ Risk Signals
Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.
Demographics in 85621
Population: 21,512
Crime & Safety
Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon
We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.
Expected: Q1 2025
🎓 Schools in 85621
Schools in This ZIP Code
About Repit School Scores
Traditional school ratings rely heavily on standardized test scores, which often reflect family income more than school quality. Repit takes a different approach.
We evaluate schools based on factors that research shows actually impact educational outcomes:
- Class Size — Smaller classes mean more individual attention
- School Funding — Resources available for programs, staff, and facilities
- Community Factors — Neighborhood characteristics that influence student success
- School Environment — Size, type, and structure
Scores are updated annually using federal education data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What strategy should investors use in Nogales, AZ?
A careful cash-flow rentals with hands-on management strategy Nogales, AZ best. The market produces even-keeled results for that approach at the $222K price point.
How much should I expect to pay for a home in Nogales, AZ?
Typical homes in Nogales, AZ go for around $222K. The 5-year CAGR of 0.0% stable price movement.
How strong are rents in Nogales, AZ?
The typical rental in Nogales, AZ commands about $945/mo monthly. That rent profile even-keeled cash flow against the $222K purchase basis.
Is Nogales, AZ a good market for FHA house hackers?
Nogales, AZ offers a challenging house-hacking opportunity. Small multifamily or rent-by-the-room plays can pair well with the $945/mo rent level.
Is vacancy a concern in Nogales, AZ?
Expect elevated vacancy in Nogales, AZ. Rents at $945/mo are absorbed by the tenant base without meaningful lag.
You know 85621 now. You don’t know where it ranks.
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How 85621 ranks in Nogales, AZ
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