Real Estate Investing in Tubac, Arizona (85646)
Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.
Should you buy in 85646 (Tubac, AZ)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.
Proceed carefully. Weak appreciation or affordability makes this a harder case for most buyers.
A middle-of-the-road market. Workable, but the best opportunities may be nearby ZIPs rather than this one.
- High vacancy: 31.8% of homes vacant — above national norms.
- High price-to-rent: Price-to-rent ratio 27.7 — hard to cash-flow at these prices.
• Modeled rent — no observed market rent for this ZIP; the figure is estimated from HUD fair-market rent.
What’s happening in Tubac, AZ (85646)?
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Market Analysis: 85646 Tubac
ZIP 85646 inside Santa Cruz County looks affordable on the surface — median value of $505K — but the discount exists for reasons that a careful buyer should understand before committing.
From a cash-flow lens, the numbers look inviting — $505K purchase price, 0.0% nominal cap — the work to hit that pro forma in 85646 is substantial and deserves full respect.
On the rental side, 85646 offers a low basis, the region around Tubac has moved on in ways that the ZIP itself has not fully absorbed. The result is a discount with genuine reasons.
Employment concentration in 85646 leans toward sectors with higher volatility. The demographic consequence is income fluctuation that investors need to factor into their pro forma.
leans the ZIP is not uninvestable, but it is unforgiving. Section 8 landlords, local operators, and specialized value-add funds are the investor types that tend to succeed.
Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Tubac:
Property Strategy for 85646
Which property type performs best in this market?
📊 Compare All Property Types →
| Type | Median Value | Est. Rent | Cap Rate | 5yr CAGR | $/Bedroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $447,387 | $1,690 | 2.7% | +8.5% | $223,694 |
| 3BR | $591,775 | $2,350 | 2.9% | +8.8% | $197,258 |
Market Trends
Home Value History (with trend line)
📊 How Does 85646 Compare?
| Metric | 85646 | Tubac | Nogales, AZ | Arizona |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Value | $505,006 | $505,006 | N/A | $419,643 |
| 5-Year CAGR | 3.5% | 3.5% | N/A | 6.5% |
| Avg Rent | $1,521 | $1,521 | N/A | - |
| Cap Rate | 2.4% | 2.4% | - | - |
Similar ZIPs Within 25 Miles
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Landlord Ground Truth
Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 85646 (Tubac, AZ). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.
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📊 Market Snapshot
| Home Value | $505,006 |
| Monthly Rent | $1,521 |
| Price-to-Rent | 27.7:1 |
| 1% Rule | ✗ Fails |
💰 Return Metrics
| Gross Yield | 3.6% |
| Cap Rate | 2.4% |
| 5-Year IRR | 5.9% |
📈 Home Appreciation
| 1-Year | +0.1% ▲ |
| 3-Year CAGR | +0.6% ▲ |
| 5-Year CAGR | +3.5% ▲ |
| 10-Year CAGR | +6.3% ▲ |
🏠 Rent Trends
| 1-Year | N/A |
| 3-Year CAGR | N/A |
| 5-Year CAGR | N/A |
The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (2.4%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.
Run an IRR Analysis →⚠️ Risk Signals
Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.
Demographics in 85646
Population: 1,280
Crime & Safety
Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon
We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.
Expected: Q1 2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the typical vacancy rate in Tubac, AZ?
Tubac, AZ vacancy trends elevated. Investors running standard buy-and-hold plays see reasonable downtime between tenants.
How do home values compare in Tubac, AZ?
In Tubac, AZ the median home value sits at $505K. Against the broader AZ market, that reads as reasonable for most investors.
Are rents high in Tubac, AZ?
Tubac, AZ rentals go for roughly $1,521/mo a month. That puts gross yield in solid territory relative to $505K acquisition costs.
Can I live-in-and-rent in Tubac, AZ?
House hacking in Tubac, AZ is a challenging. With home values around $505K and rents at $1,521/mo, owner-occupants can offset a meaningful share of PITI.
How strong is Tubac, AZ for real estate investors?
Tubac, AZ scores 3.0/5 for investability. Home values sit at $505K and rents near $1,521/mo, which keeps the rent-to-price ratio in reasonable territory for buy-and-hold investors.
You know 85646 now. You don’t know where it ranks.
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How 85646 ranks in Nogales, AZ
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