Real Estate Investing in Groveland, California (95321)

Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.

Tuolumne County • Population: 3,870 • Data updated: September 2026

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Should you buy in 95321 (Groveland, CA)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.

🏠 For Homebuyers
WEAK FIT
Grade F (36/100)

Multiple negative signals. Better options likely exist nearby.

📈 For Investors
WEAK
2.0 / 5 (33/100)

Structural challenges here. The numbers may look cheap but operational risk is high. Only for experienced, hands-on investors.

⚠️ Risks to Know
3 flags
  • High vacancy: 51.9% of homes vacant — above national norms.
  • Flat appreciation: Values have barely moved over 5 years (1.2% CAGR).
  • Tenant-protective state: Landlord rating 1.0/5 — slower evictions, more regulations.

• Modeled rent — no observed market rent for this ZIP; the figure is estimated from HUD fair-market rent.

What’s happening in Groveland, CA (95321)?

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2.0/ 5

Investability

Overall investment appeal

1.0/ 5

Appreciation

Long-term value growth

3.0/ 5

Cashflow ROI

Rental yield potential

Avg Home Value $394,649
Avg Monthly Rent $1,611
1% Rule ✗ Does Not Meet
Median Income $66,708
% Renters 13.0%

Market Analysis: 95321 Groveland

Not every below-median market is a bargain. Groveland's 95321 ZIP sits at signals that favor experienced operators who can absorb the risk $395K pricing implies.

In practical terms, the numbers look inviting — $395K purchase price, 0.0% nominal cap — the work to hit that pro forma in 95321 is substantial and deserves full respect.

Regionally, 95321 sits on the difficult end of the CA spectrum. The a solid fit for read — for disciplined operators — is that pricing reflects the difficulty.

A resilient renter share of 13% in 95321 is not, on its own, a problem — but paired with below-average income and high mobility, it changes the operating playbook.

Strategy in 95321 is an operator game, not a passive one. In practical terms, entry prices of $395K are inviting, the management lift is real and non-optional.

Explore the Data — Click a Tab Below
🏦 Current 30-yr Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.76% as of Sep 10 Source: Freddie Mac PMMS

Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Groveland:

C Below Average
Buy Confidence Score: 52/100
Affordability
10/25
Appreciation
14/25
Stability
7/20
Timing
6/15
Rental backup
15/15
Affordability
Expensive
Homes cost 5.9× the median income
Value Trend
Declining (-0.5%)
How home values changed in the past year
Rental Backup
Strong
Could rent for $1,611/mo if you need to move
Market Conditions
WARM
Seller-favorable conditions, steady activity
Bottom Line: This market may be challenging for buyers. Consider your timing and budget carefully.
☀️
WARM MARKET
Sonora, CA Metro Area
Seller-favorable conditions, steady activity
0 days
Average time to sell
Very Fast
7.8%
Listings with price cuts
Few Cuts
0.0%
Sale price vs asking
Below Ask
0.0%
Income needed for mortgage
Affordable
📅 Market conditions as of August 29, 2026 — updated weekly from Sonora, CA metro data
🏠

Property Strategy for 95321

Which property type performs best in this market?

Best for Cash Flow
4BR
4.6% cap rate
Best for Appreciation
3BR
+5.4% 5yr CAGR
Best Overall Value
4BR
$117,691/bedroom
📊 Compare All Property Types →
Type Median Value Est. Rent Cap Rate 5yr CAGR $/Bedroom
2BR $308,541 $1,790 4.2% $154,270
3BR $403,188 $2,340 4.2% +5.4% $134,396
4BR $470,765 $3,000 4.6% $117,691

Market Trends

Home Value History (with trend line)

$464K$423K$382K$340K$299K$257KFeb 2016May 2021Jul 2026

📊 How Does 95321 Compare?

Metric 95321 Groveland Sonora, CA California
Home Value $394,649 $394,649 N/A $761,003
5-Year CAGR 1.2% 1.2% N/A 5.7%
Avg Rent $1,611 $1,611 N/A -
Cap Rate 3.2% 3.2% - -
A great house in the wrong ZIP is still a bad deal — screen every market by cash flow & cap rate.
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Landlord Ground Truth

Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 95321 (Groveland, CA). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.

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Investability
Fair
Cap Rate
3.2%
Low
5yr Growth
+1.2%
Slow

📉 Market Crash Risk Index

Based on Sonora, CA metro

0/10
Low Risk
Price YoY
0/3
N/A
Rent YoY
0/2
N/A
Below List
0/3
0%
Days Pending
0/2
0 days

View all metro crash risk rankings →

📊 Market Snapshot

Home Value $394,649
Monthly Rent $1,611
Price-to-Rent 20.4:1
1% Rule ✗ Fails

💰 Return Metrics

Gross Yield 4.9%
Cap Rate 3.2%
5-Year IRR 4.4%

📈 Home Appreciation

1-Year -0.5% ▼
3-Year CAGR -1.9% ▼
5-Year CAGR +1.2% ▲
10-Year CAGR +3.7% ▲

🏠 Rent Trends

1-Year N/A
3-Year CAGR N/A
5-Year CAGR N/A
Negative Leverage — IRR / Tax Play Cap Rate: 3.2%  |  30yr Rate: 6.8%
Leverage reduces cash returns at current rates.

The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (3.2%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.

Run an IRR Analysis →

⚠️ Risk Signals

Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.

Vacancy
51.9%
Elevated risk
Landlord Climate
1.0/5
Protective
Value Trend (5yr)
+1.2%
Flat
Eviction process: Very Slow Rent control: Unfavorable

Demographics in 95321

Population: 3,870

💰 Median Household Income
$66,708
This area
$66,708
State
$94,164
USA
$74,580
🏠 Renter Occupied
13.0%
This area
13.0%
State
39.3%
USA
34.0%
💼 Unemployment Rate
3.6%
This area
3.6%
State
-16.6%
USA
3.7%
🎓 College Educated
30.2%
This area
30.2%
State
7.7%
USA
33.7%
👤 Median Age
58.9 years
This area
58.9 years
State
9.6 years
USA
38.9 years
🏚️ Vacancy Rate
51.9%
This area
51.9%
State
15.3%
USA
10.5%
👥 Population by Ethnicity
White 81.1%
Other/Mixed 16.5%
Hispanic/Latino 12.3%
Asian 2.4%
👶 Under 18
10.3%
This area
10.3%
USA
22.0%
👴 65 and Over
40.2%
This area
40.2%
USA
17.3%
📊 Poverty Rate
4.3%
This area
4.3%
USA
11.5%

Crime & Safety

🚧

Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon

We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.

Expected: Q1 2025

🎓 Schools in 95321

A Avg School Grade
2 Schools
10.3:1 Avg Class Size
$23,220 Avg Per Pupil

Schools in This ZIP Code

A Very Good

Tioga High

📚 09 – 12 High School
👥
53 Students
👨‍🏫
7.1:1 Class Size
💰
$23,220 Per Student
A Very Good

Tenaya Elementary

📚 K – 08 School
👥
161 Students
👨‍🏫
13.4:1 Class Size
💰
$23,220 Per Student
About Repit School Scores

Traditional school ratings rely heavily on standardized test scores, which often reflect family income more than school quality. Repit takes a different approach.

We evaluate schools based on factors that research shows actually impact educational outcomes:

  • Class Size — Smaller classes mean more individual attention
  • School Funding — Resources available for programs, staff, and facilities
  • Community Factors — Neighborhood characteristics that influence student success
  • School Environment — Size, type, and structure

Scores are updated annually using federal education data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the smart move for investors in Groveland, CA?

A careful cash-flow rentals with hands-on management strategy Groveland, CA best. The market produces stable results for that approach at the $395K price point.

How high is vacancy risk in Groveland, CA?

Vacancy in Groveland, CA is elevated, which keeps landlord downtime on reasonable timelines. Most properties lease within the standard window at $1,611/mo.

Does Groveland, CA make sense for an investment property?

Groveland, CA registers an investability rating of 2.0/5, with median home values near $395K and average rents around $1,611/mo. That combination puts it in the resilient tier for investor interest.

Does Groveland, CA favor landlords or tenants?

For rental operators, Groveland, CA rates as tenant-protective. The regulatory environment standard buy-and-hold operations.

What kind of tenants rent in Groveland, CA?

Tenant demand in Groveland, CA is solid. The local workforce $1,611/mo rents across most rental classes.

You know 95321 now. You don’t know where it ranks.

This page stays free — all of it. What one page can’t tell you is how 95321 compares to every other market. Investor ($19/mo) screens every U.S. ZIP by cap rate, the 1% rule, vacancy and landlord climate, and exports your shortlist.

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How 95321 ranks in Sonora, CA

Every ZIP in this metro, ranked. Free.

Cash Flow → Appreciation →
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