Real Estate Investing in Vail, Arizona (85641)

Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.

Pima County • Population: 31,665 • Data updated: September 2026

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Should you buy in 85641 (Vail, AZ)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.

🏠 For Homebuyers
GOOD FIT
Grade B (73/100)

Solid choice — stable market with a reasonable entry point and good rental backup if you ever need to move.

📈 For Investors
MIXED
3.0 / 5 (52/100)

A cash-flow market — rent-to-price math works from day one, though value growth is modest. Great for income-focused investors.

⚠️ Risks to Know
CLEAN

No major risk flags on the data we track.

What’s happening in Vail, AZ (85641)?

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3.0/ 5

Investability

Overall investment appeal

2.0/ 5

Appreciation

Long-term value growth

4.0/ 5

Cashflow ROI

Rental yield potential

Avg Home Value $405,844
Avg Monthly Rent $2,119
1% Rule ✗ Does Not Meet
Median Income $114,201
% Renters 6.1%

Market Analysis: 85641 Vail

Investors eyeing 85641 need to respect the fundamentals at play. Home values of $406K come alongside slower price movement and elevated management overhead.

Distressed markets are won on execution, not on spreadsheets. ZIP 85641 records the profile where tenant screening, deferred maintenance, and local relationships determine the outcome.

In the broader AZ picture, 85641 is a reminder that not every low-priced ZIP is a value-add opportunity — some are simply distressed, and the difference matters.

Demographically, 85641 is a market where tenant selection matters more than unit finishes. Operators who understand that tend to do fine; those who do not tend to learn why the ZIP trades at a discount.

The right play in 85641 usually involves deep tenant screening, aggressive delinquency response, and a conservative capex buffer. Anything less, and the discount can turn into a trap.

Explore the Data — Click a Tab Below
🏦 Current 30-yr Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.76% as of Sep 10 Source: Freddie Mac PMMS

Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Vail:

C+ Average
Buy Confidence Score: 67/100
Affordability
15/25
Appreciation
14/25
Stability
13/20
Timing
10/15
Rental backup
15/15
Affordability
Moderate
Homes cost 3.6× the median income
Value Trend
Declining (-1.4%)
How home values changed in the past year
Rental Backup
Strong
Could rent for $2,119/mo if you need to move
Market Conditions
COOL
More inventory, negotiating room for buyers
Bottom Line: Mixed signals in this market. Research specific properties carefully and be prepared to negotiate.
❄️
COOL MARKET
Tucson, AZ Metro Area
More inventory, negotiating room for buyers
70 days
Average time to sell
Slow
9.0%
Listings with price cuts
Few Cuts
0.0%
Sale price vs asking
Below Ask
0.0%
Income needed for mortgage
Affordable
📅 Market conditions as of August 29, 2026 — updated weekly from Tucson, AZ metro data
🏠

Property Strategy for 85641

Which property type performs best in this market?

Best for Cash Flow
4BR
5.7% cap rate
Best for Appreciation
4BR
+6.3% 5yr CAGR
Best Overall Value
5BR
$93,299/bedroom
📊 Compare All Property Types →
Type Median Value Est. Rent Cap Rate 5yr CAGR $/Bedroom
2BR $352,298 $2,100 4.3% +6.1% $176,149
3BR $372,065 $2,920 5.7% +6.3% $124,022
4BR $425,914 $3,360 5.7% +6.3% $106,478
5BR $466,494 +5.8% $93,299

Market Trends

Home Value History (with trend line)

$448K$390K$332K$274K$216K$158KMay 2006Jun 2016Jul 2026

Rent History (with trend line)

$2,225$2,147$2,069$1,991$1,913$1,835Mar 2022May 2024Jul 2026

📊 How Does 85641 Compare?

Metric 85641 Vail Tucson, AZ Arizona
Home Value $405,844 $405,844 N/A $419,643
5-Year CAGR 2.3% 2.3% N/A 6.5%
Avg Rent $2,119 $2,119 N/A -
Cap Rate 4.1% 4.1% - -
💡 Why Invest in 85641? Click to expand

With a 3/5 investability rating, this ZIP shows solid fundamentals for buy-and-hold investors.

📊 See where this ZIP ranks in our Best-of lists →
A great house in the wrong ZIP is still a bad deal — screen every market by cash flow & cap rate.
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Landlord Ground Truth

Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 85641 (Vail, AZ). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.

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Property managers serving Pima County

Manage rentals here? List your business →

Fort Lowell Realty & Property Management provides realty and property management services in Tucson. summary from their website

Unclaimed — is this your business? Claim it free

WilsonPs.com is a domain name for sale. summary from their website

Unclaimed — is this your business? Claim it free
Unclaimed — is this your business? Claim it free

Listings are shown for convenience — Repit doesn’t endorse or vet these companies. Ratings shown come only from email-verified visitors.

Investability
Good
Cap Rate
4.1%
Fair
5yr Growth
+2.3%
Slow

📉 Market Crash Risk Index

Based on Tucson, AZ metro

3/10
Moderate Risk
Price YoY
0/3
N/A
Rent YoY
0/2
N/A
Below List
1/3
57%
Days Pending
2/2
70 days

View all metro crash risk rankings →

📊 Market Snapshot

Home Value $405,844
Monthly Rent $2,119
Price-to-Rent 16.0:1
1% Rule ✗ Fails

💰 Return Metrics

Gross Yield 6.3%
Cap Rate 4.1%
5-Year IRR 6.4%

📈 Home Appreciation

1-Year -1.4% ▼
3-Year CAGR -0.6% ▼
5-Year CAGR +2.3% ▲
10-Year CAGR +5.5% ▲

🏠 Rent Trends

1-Year -1.2% ▼
3-Year CAGR +1.7% ▲
5-Year CAGR N/A
Negative Leverage — IRR / Tax Play Cap Rate: 4.1%  |  30yr Rate: 6.8%
Leverage reduces cash returns at current rates.

The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (4.1%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.

Run an IRR Analysis →

⚠️ Risk Signals

Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.

Vacancy
3.9%
Low risk
Landlord Climate
5.0/5
Friendly
Value Trend (5yr)
+2.3%
Stable
Eviction process: Fast Rent control: Favorable

Demographics in 85641

Population: 31,665

💰 Median Household Income
$114,201
This area
$114,201
State
$66,355
USA
$74,580
🏠 Renter Occupied
6.1%
This area
6.1%
State
28.6%
USA
34.0%
💼 Unemployment Rate
1.6%
This area
1.6%
State
-23.2%
USA
3.7%
🎓 College Educated
43.8%
This area
43.8%
State
-1.0%
USA
33.7%
👤 Median Age
39.5 years
This area
39.5 years
State
11.1 years
USA
38.9 years
🏚️ Vacancy Rate
3.9%
This area
3.9%
State
19.2%
USA
10.5%
👥 Population by Ethnicity
White 74.7%
Other/Mixed 18.0%
Hispanic/Latino 12.1%
Black/African American 4.8%
Asian 2.4%
👶 Under 18
26.9%
This area
26.9%
USA
22.0%
👴 65 and Over
14.0%
This area
14.0%
USA
17.3%
📊 Poverty Rate
3.1%
This area
3.1%
USA
11.5%

Crime & Safety

🚧

Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon

We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.

Expected: Q1 2025

🎓 Schools in 85641

B Avg School Grade
10 Schools
21.0:1 Avg Class Size
$18,541 Avg Per Pupil

Schools in This ZIP Code

B+ Above Average

Ocotillo Ridge Elementary

📚 Pre-K – 05 Elementary
👥
724 Students
👨‍🏫
14.5:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
B Good

Copper Ridge Elementary

📚 Pre-K – 05 Elementary
👥
374 Students
👨‍🏫
17.8:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
B Good

Sycamore Elementary School

📚 K – 05 Elementary
👥
677 Students
👨‍🏫
16.0:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
B Good

Acacia Elementary School

📚 K – 05 Elementary
👥
734 Students
👨‍🏫
19.0:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
B Good

Corona Foothills Middle School

📚 06 – 08 Middle
👥
596 Students
👨‍🏫
19.2:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
B Good

PCJTED - Cienega High School

📚 09 – 12 High School Limited Data
👥
2 Students
💰
$85,487 Per Student
C+ Average

Pantano High School

📚 09 – 12 High School
👥
98 Students
👨‍🏫
10.7:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
C+ Average

Cienega High School

📚 09 – 12 High School
👥
1,872 Students
👨‍🏫
18.0:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
C+ Average

Old Vail Middle School

📚 06 – 08 Middle
👥
802 Students
👨‍🏫
20.1:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
C Below Average

Vail Inclusive Preschool

📚 Grade PK Elementary
👥
279 Students
👨‍🏫
54.2:1 Class Size
💰
$11,103 Per Student
About Repit School Scores

Traditional school ratings rely heavily on standardized test scores, which often reflect family income more than school quality. Repit takes a different approach.

We evaluate schools based on factors that research shows actually impact educational outcomes:

  • Class Size — Smaller classes mean more individual attention
  • School Funding — Resources available for programs, staff, and facilities
  • Community Factors — Neighborhood characteristics that influence student success
  • School Environment — Size, type, and structure

Scores are updated annually using federal education data.

🎓 Nearby Colleges & Universities

1 Nearby
C
HDS Truck Driving Institute
342 students · 14.8 mi

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the typical home price in Vail, AZ?

In Vail, AZ the median home value sits at $406K. Against the broader AZ market, that reads as reasonable for most investors.

Should investors worry about vacancy in Vail, AZ?

Vail, AZ sees elevated vacancy, which is reasonable relative to the broader AZ rental market.

Are renters plentiful in Vail, AZ?

Working renters make up the core of the Vail, AZ tenant base. The pool is reasonable for investors targeting long-term holds.

Is AZ a landlord-friendly state?

The landlord environment in Vail, AZ is landlord-friendly. Statewide rules shape most day-to-day operations for rental owners.

Is house hacking profitable in Vail, AZ?

House hacking in Vail, AZ is reasonable to execute. Prices around $406K and rents of $2,119/mo solid owner-occupant economics.

You know 85641 now. You don’t know where it ranks.

This page stays free — all of it. What one page can’t tell you is how 85641 compares to every other market. Investor ($19/mo) screens every U.S. ZIP by cap rate, the 1% rule, vacancy and landlord climate, and exports your shortlist.

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How 85641 ranks in Tucson, AZ

Every ZIP in this metro, ranked. Free.

Cash Flow → Appreciation → Affordable →
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