Real Estate Investing in Winton, California (95388)

Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.

Merced County • Population: 13,005 • Data updated: September 2026

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Should you buy in 95388 (Winton, CA)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.

🏠 For Homebuyers
CAUTION
Grade D (49/100)

Proceed carefully. Weak appreciation or affordability makes this a harder case for most buyers.

📈 For Investors
MIXED
3.0 / 5 (47/100)

A middle-of-the-road market. Workable, but the best opportunities may be nearby ZIPs rather than this one.

⚠️ Risks to Know
1 flag
  • Tenant-protective state: Landlord rating 1.0/5 — slower evictions, more regulations.

• Modeled rent — no observed market rent for this ZIP; the figure is estimated from HUD fair-market rent.

What’s happening in Winton, CA (95388)?

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3.0/ 5

Investability

Overall investment appeal

2.0/ 5

Appreciation

Long-term value growth

3.0/ 5

Cashflow ROI

Rental yield potential

Avg Home Value $366,429
Avg Monthly Rent $1,224
1% Rule ✗ Does Not Meet
Median Income $55,517
% Renters 41.4%

Market Analysis: 95388 Winton

Investors eyeing 95388 need to respect the fundamentals at play. Home values of $366K come alongside slower price movement and elevated management overhead.

Distressed does not mean uninvestable. It means the margin for error is thinner. ZIP 95388 rewards the prepared, punishes the overconfident, and leaves the math unchanged either way.

Statewide comparisons place 95388 among CA's softer markets. That context does not make the ZIP uninvestable, but it does raise the bar for due diligence.

Who lives in 95388 is part of why the ZIP is priced as it is. The demographic profile requires hands-on management, tight screening, and local knowledge.

Strategy in 95388 is an operator game, not a passive one. In practical terms, entry prices of $366K are inviting, the management lift is real and non-optional.

Explore the Data — Click a Tab Below
🏦 Current 30-yr Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.76% as of Sep 10 Source: Freddie Mac PMMS

Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Winton:

C Below Average
Buy Confidence Score: 55/100
Affordability
5/25
Appreciation
18/25
Stability
11/20
Timing
6/15
Rental backup
15/15
Affordability
Expensive
Homes cost 6.6× the median income
Value Trend
Stable (+2.2%)
How home values changed in the past year
Rental Backup
Strong
Could rent for $1,224/mo if you need to move
Market Conditions
WARM
Seller-favorable conditions, steady activity
Bottom Line: This market may be challenging for buyers. Consider your timing and budget carefully.
☀️
WARM MARKET
Merced, CA Metro Area
Seller-favorable conditions, steady activity
0 days
Average time to sell
Very Fast
7.4%
Listings with price cuts
Few Cuts
0.0%
Sale price vs asking
Below Ask
0.0%
Income needed for mortgage
Affordable
📅 Market conditions as of August 29, 2026 — updated weekly from Merced, CA metro data
🏠

Property Strategy for 95388

Which property type performs best in this market?

Best for Cash Flow
4BR
4.2% cap rate
Best for Appreciation
3BR
+7.3% 5yr CAGR
Best Overall Value
4BR
$97,496/bedroom
📊 Compare All Property Types →
Type Median Value Est. Rent Cap Rate 5yr CAGR $/Bedroom
2BR $289,332 $1,360 3.4% +6.9% $144,666
3BR $346,188 $1,880 3.9% +7.3% $115,396
4BR $389,983 $2,290 4.2% +7.0% $97,496

Market Trends

Home Value History (with trend line)

$390K$323K$256K$189K$122K$55KJul 2006Jul 2016Jul 2026

📊 How Does 95388 Compare?

Metric 95388 Winton Merced, CA California
Home Value $366,429 $366,429 N/A $761,003
5-Year CAGR 3.9% 3.9% N/A 5.7%
Avg Rent $1,224 $1,224 N/A -
Cap Rate 2.6% 2.6% - -
💡 Why Invest in 95388? Click to expand

With a 3/5 investability rating, this ZIP shows solid fundamentals for buy-and-hold investors.

A healthy rental market with 41% renter-occupied households ensures tenant availability.

📊 See where this ZIP ranks in our Best-of lists →
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Landlord Ground Truth

Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 95388 (Winton, CA). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.

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Investability
Good
Cap Rate
2.6%
Low
5yr Growth
+3.9%
Moderate

📉 Market Crash Risk Index

Based on Merced, CA metro

0/10
Low Risk
Price YoY
0/3
N/A
Rent YoY
0/2
N/A
Below List
0/3
46%
Days Pending
0/2
0 days

View all metro crash risk rankings →

📊 Market Snapshot

Home Value $366,429
Monthly Rent $1,224
Price-to-Rent 25.0:1
1% Rule ✗ Fails

💰 Return Metrics

Gross Yield 4.0%
Cap Rate 2.6%
5-Year IRR 6.5%

📈 Home Appreciation

1-Year +2.2% ▲
3-Year CAGR +2.8% ▲
5-Year CAGR +3.9% ▲
10-Year CAGR +8.6% ▲

🏠 Rent Trends

1-Year N/A
3-Year CAGR N/A
5-Year CAGR N/A
Negative Leverage — IRR / Tax Play Cap Rate: 2.6%  |  30yr Rate: 6.8%
Leverage reduces cash returns at current rates.

The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (2.6%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.

Run an IRR Analysis →

⚠️ Risk Signals

Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.

Vacancy
6.9%
Low risk
Landlord Climate
1.0/5
Protective
Value Trend (5yr)
+3.9%
Stable
Eviction process: Very Slow Rent control: Unfavorable

Demographics in 95388

Population: 13,005

💰 Median Household Income
$55,517
This area
$55,517
State
$94,164
USA
$74,580
🏠 Renter Occupied
41.4%
This area
41.4%
State
39.3%
USA
34.0%
💼 Unemployment Rate
6.2%
This area
6.2%
State
-16.6%
USA
3.7%
🎓 College Educated
6.8%
This area
6.8%
State
7.7%
USA
33.7%
👤 Median Age
29.6 years
This area
29.6 years
State
9.6 years
USA
38.9 years
🏚️ Vacancy Rate
6.9%
This area
6.9%
State
15.3%
USA
10.5%
👥 Population by Ethnicity
Other/Mixed 70.1%
Hispanic/Latino 68.2%
White 25.5%
Asian 2.9%
Black/African American 1.5%
👶 Under 18
31.5%
This area
31.5%
USA
22.0%
👴 65 and Over
11.2%
This area
11.2%
USA
17.3%
📊 Poverty Rate
11.5%
This area
11.5%
USA
11.5%

Crime & Safety

🚧

Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon

We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.

Expected: Q1 2025

🎓 Schools in 95388

B Avg School Grade
5 Schools
22.6:1 Avg Class Size
$15,591 Avg Per Pupil

Schools in This ZIP Code

B Good

Sybil N. Crookham Elementary

📚 K – 05 Elementary
👥
372 Students
👨‍🏫
21.9:1 Class Size
💰
$16,308 Per Student
B Good

Winfield Elementary

📚 K – 05 Elementary
👥
454 Students
👨‍🏫
21.6:1 Class Size
💰
$16,308 Per Student
B Good

Winton Middle

📚 06 – 08 Middle
👥
606 Students
👨‍🏫
20.9:1 Class Size
💰
$16,308 Per Student
B Good

Frank Sparkes Elementary

📚 K – 05 Elementary
👥
436 Students
👨‍🏫
23.0:1 Class Size
💰
$16,308 Per Student
C+ Average

Washington Elementary

📚 K – 08 School
👥
281 Students
👨‍🏫
25.7:1 Class Size
💰
$12,722 Per Student
About Repit School Scores

Traditional school ratings rely heavily on standardized test scores, which often reflect family income more than school quality. Repit takes a different approach.

We evaluate schools based on factors that research shows actually impact educational outcomes:

  • Class Size — Smaller classes mean more individual attention
  • School Funding — Resources available for programs, staff, and facilities
  • Community Factors — Neighborhood characteristics that influence student success
  • School Environment — Size, type, and structure

Scores are updated annually using federal education data.

🎓 Nearby Colleges & Universities

4 Nearby 4,493 Off-Campus Students
C
Merced College
11,835 students · 8.9 mi
C
Milan Institute-Merced
308 students · 9.4 mi
C+
Sierra College of Beauty
245 students · 9.7 mi
B+
University of California-Merced
9,147 students · 10.2 mi

Investor Insight: With 4,493 students living off-campus nearby, this area has strong rental demand from the college population.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the median home value in Winton, CA?

Winton, CA home values average about $366K. That price point suits investors targeting rentals with $1,224/mo in monthly income.

What kind of tenants rent in Winton, CA?

The renter base in Winton, CA is reasonable for the $1,224/mo price point. Screening well and pricing to market typically yields consistent tenants.

How landlord-friendly is Winton, CA?

CA law tenant-protective for landlords, and Winton inherits those rules. Investors should still review local ordinances for rental licensing.

What do rentals go for in Winton, CA?

Winton, CA rentals go for roughly $1,224/mo a month. That puts gross yield in solid territory relative to $366K acquisition costs.

Do rentals sit vacant long in Winton, CA?

Winton, CA vacancy trends elevated. Investors running standard buy-and-hold plays see reasonable downtime between tenants.

You know 95388 now. You don’t know where it ranks.

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How 95388 ranks in Merced, CA

Every ZIP in this metro, ranked. Free.

Cash Flow → Appreciation → Affordable →
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