Real Estate Investing in Surprise, Arizona (85387)

Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.

Maricopa County • Population: 19,140 • Data updated: September 2026

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Should you buy in 85387 (Surprise, AZ)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.

🏠 For Homebuyers
MIXED
Grade C (56/100)

Mixed — home prices are stretched relative to local incomes. Run the math on your specific situation.

📈 For Investors
MIXED
3.0 / 5 (47/100)

A middle-of-the-road market. Workable, but the best opportunities may be nearby ZIPs rather than this one.

⚠️ Risks to Know
CLEAN

No major risk flags on the data we track.

What’s happening in Surprise, AZ (85387)?

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3.0/ 5

Investability

Overall investment appeal

2.0/ 5

Appreciation

Long-term value growth

3.0/ 5

Cashflow ROI

Rental yield potential

Avg Home Value $452,940
Avg Monthly Rent $2,153
1% Rule ✗ Does Not Meet
Median Income $87,480
% Renters 5.8%

Market Analysis: 85387 Surprise

The 85387 ZIP in Surprise, AZ is a local-operator market. Outside capital chasing a $453K entry has to pair deep knowledge with the discount.

Distressed markets are won on execution, not on spreadsheets. ZIP 85387 shows the profile where tenant screening, deferred maintenance, and local relationships determine the outcome.

Statewide comparisons place 85387 among AZ's softer markets. That context does not make the ZIP uninvestable, but it does raise the bar for due diligence.

From an investor standpoint, 19,140 residents fill the ZIP, renter turnover runs higher than neighboring postal codes and delinquency risk is a real line item rather than a theoretical one.

The 85387 ZIP fits a narrow investor profile — hands-on, patient, and willing to accept that the cap rate on paper is not the cap rate in reality.

Explore the Data — Click a Tab Below
🏦 Current 30-yr Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.76% as of Sep 10 Source: Freddie Mac PMMS

Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Surprise:

C+ Average
Buy Confidence Score: 60/100
Affordability
10/25
Appreciation
14/25
Stability
11/20
Timing
10/15
Rental backup
15/15
Affordability
Expensive
Homes cost 5.2× the median income
Value Trend
Declining (-1.2%)
How home values changed in the past year
Rental Backup
Strong
Could rent for $2,153/mo if you need to move
Market Conditions
COOL
More inventory, negotiating room for buyers
Bottom Line: Mixed signals in this market. Research specific properties carefully and be prepared to negotiate.
❄️
COOL MARKET
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area
More inventory, negotiating room for buyers
64 days
Average time to sell
Slow
11.6%
Listings with price cuts
Few Cuts
0.0%
Sale price vs asking
Below Ask
0.0%
Income needed for mortgage
Affordable
📅 Market conditions as of August 29, 2026 — updated weekly from Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro data
🏠

Property Strategy for 85387

Which property type performs best in this market?

Best for Cash Flow
4BR
5.6% cap rate
Best for Appreciation
4BR
+7.3% 5yr CAGR
Best Overall Value
5BR
$99,495/bedroom
📊 Compare All Property Types →
Type Median Value Est. Rent Cap Rate 5yr CAGR $/Bedroom
2BR $434,941 $2,460 4.1% +4.8% $217,470
3BR $426,790 $3,280 5.5% +6.3% $142,263
4BR $468,287 $3,640 5.6% +7.3% $117,072
5BR $497,475 +6.3% $99,495

Market Trends

Home Value History (with trend line)

$532K$462K$393K$324K$254K$185KJul 2006Jul 2016Jul 2026

Rent History (with trend line)

$2,205$2,179$2,153$2,127$2,101$2,074Jan 2024May 2025Jul 2026

📊 How Does 85387 Compare?

Metric 85387 Surprise Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Arizona
Home Value $452,940 $408,276 N/A $419,643
5-Year CAGR 2.0% 1.9% N/A 6.5%
Avg Rent $2,153 $1,963 N/A -
Cap Rate 3.7% 3.8% - -
💡 Why Invest in 85387? Click to expand

With a 3/5 investability rating, this ZIP shows solid fundamentals for buy-and-hold investors.

📊 See where this ZIP ranks in our Best-of lists →
A great house in the wrong ZIP is still a bad deal — screen every market by cash flow & cap rate.
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Landlord Ground Truth

Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 85387 (Surprise, AZ). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.

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Property managers serving Maricopa County

Manage rentals here? List your business →

Active Renter Property Management offers rental property management services in Phoenix, Arizona, including a 6-month tenant guarantee. summary from their website

Unclaimed — is this your business? Claim it free

Arête Realty and Property Management, LLC offers property management services and real estate expertise in Glendale, Avondale, Chandler, Mesa, Gilbert, Sun City, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and Peori summary from their website

Unclaimed — is this your business? Claim it free

Arizona Community Management Services offers a comprehensive suite of services for Association leaders, including board training, financial management, and covenants enforcement, with decades of exper summary from their website

Unclaimed — is this your business? Claim it free

Listings are shown for convenience — Repit doesn’t endorse or vet these companies. Ratings shown come only from email-verified visitors.

Investability
Good
Cap Rate
3.7%
Low
5yr Growth
+2.0%
Slow

📊 Market Snapshot

Home Value $452,940
Monthly Rent $2,153
Price-to-Rent 17.5:1
1% Rule ✗ Fails

💰 Return Metrics

Gross Yield 5.7%
Cap Rate 3.7%
5-Year IRR 5.7%

📈 Home Appreciation

1-Year -1.2% ▼
3-Year CAGR -1.0% ▼
5-Year CAGR +2.0% ▲
10-Year CAGR +5.5% ▲

🏠 Rent Trends

1-Year -1.2% ▼
3-Year CAGR N/A
5-Year CAGR N/A
Negative Leverage — IRR / Tax Play Cap Rate: 3.7%  |  30yr Rate: 6.8%
Leverage reduces cash returns at current rates.

The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (3.7%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.

Run an IRR Analysis →

⚠️ Risk Signals

Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.

Vacancy
7.5%
Low risk
Landlord Climate
5.0/5
Friendly
Value Trend (5yr)
+2.0%
Stable
Eviction process: Fast Rent control: Favorable

Demographics in 85387

Population: 19,140

💰 Median Household Income
$87,480
This area
$87,480
State
$66,355
USA
$74,580
🏠 Renter Occupied
5.8%
This area
5.8%
State
28.6%
USA
34.0%
💼 Unemployment Rate
2.0%
This area
2.0%
State
-23.2%
USA
3.7%
🎓 College Educated
36.1%
This area
36.1%
State
-1.0%
USA
33.7%
👤 Median Age
54.0 years
This area
54.0 years
State
11.1 years
USA
38.9 years
🏚️ Vacancy Rate
7.5%
This area
7.5%
State
19.2%
USA
10.5%
👥 Population by Ethnicity
White 81.5%
Other/Mixed 12.9%
Hispanic/Latino 9.6%
Black/African American 3.0%
Asian 2.6%
👶 Under 18
14.6%
This area
14.6%
USA
22.0%
👴 65 and Over
35.5%
This area
35.5%
USA
17.3%
📊 Poverty Rate
2.8%
This area
2.8%
USA
11.5%

Crime & Safety

🚧

Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon

We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.

Expected: Q1 2025

🎓 Schools in 85387

C+ Avg School Grade
2 Schools
20.1:1 Avg Class Size
$12,908 Avg Per Pupil

Schools in This ZIP Code

B Good

Desert Oasis Elementary School

📚 Pre-K – 08 School Limited Data
👥
657 Students
💰
$14,062 Per Student
C+ Average

Asante Preparatory Academy

📚 Pre-K – 08 School
👥
1,134 Students
👨‍🏫
20.1:1 Class Size
💰
$11,753 Per Student
About Repit School Scores

Traditional school ratings rely heavily on standardized test scores, which often reflect family income more than school quality. Repit takes a different approach.

We evaluate schools based on factors that research shows actually impact educational outcomes:

  • Class Size — Smaller classes mean more individual attention
  • School Funding — Resources available for programs, staff, and facilities
  • Community Factors — Neighborhood characteristics that influence student success
  • School Environment — Size, type, and structure

Scores are updated annually using federal education data.

🎓 Nearby Colleges & Universities

2 Nearby
D
Ottawa University-Surprise
836 students · 7.3 mi
D
Kor Beauty Academy
64 students · 14.1 mi

Frequently Asked Questions

How strong is tenant demand in Surprise, AZ?

Surprise, AZ draws a predictable base of working renters. Demand at the $2,153/mo rent level is reasonable for standard single-family and small multi rentals.

Does a duplex house hack pencil in Surprise, AZ?

The a challenging house-hack environment in Surprise, AZ reflects the rent-to-price spread. Expect meaningful PITI offset at market rents.

How expensive is real estate in Surprise, AZ?

Median home price in Surprise, AZ is near $453K, with a 5-year CAGR of 0.0%. Prices have been stable and supportive of buy-and-hold strategies.

How much do tenants pay in Surprise, AZ?

Rent in Surprise, AZ is around $2,153/mo. The resulting rent-to-value relationship with $453K pricing is reasonable for most investor models.

Are landlord laws favorable in Surprise, AZ?

Rental owners in Surprise, AZ deal with a landlord-friendly legal framework. Most standard eviction processes run on reasonable timelines.

You know 85387 now. You don’t know where it ranks.

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How 85387 ranks in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

Every ZIP in this metro, ranked. Free.

Cash Flow → Appreciation → Affordable →
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