Real Estate Investing in Lake City, Pennsylvania (16423)

Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.

Erie County • Population: 3,880 • Data updated: September 2026

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Should you buy in 16423 (Lake City, PA)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.

🏠 For Homebuyers
GOOD FIT
Grade B (71/100)

Solid choice — values are growing steadily and the market is stable enough to buy with confidence.

📈 For Investors
MIXED
3.0 / 5 (47/100)

A middle-of-the-road market. Workable, but the best opportunities may be nearby ZIPs rather than this one.

⚠️ Risks to Know
1 flag
  • Elevated vacancy: 11.1% vacancy may signal weakening demand.

• Modeled rent — no observed market rent for this ZIP; the figure is estimated from HUD fair-market rent.

What’s happening in Lake City, PA (16423)?

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3.0/ 5

Investability

Overall investment appeal

3.0/ 5

Appreciation

Long-term value growth

3.0/ 5

Cashflow ROI

Rental yield potential

Avg Home Value $213,571
Avg Monthly Rent $1,008
1% Rule ✗ Does Not Meet
Median Income $70,529
% Renters 10.0%

Market Analysis: 16423 Lake City

ZIP 16423 in Lake City, PA carries a substantial set of headwinds. Home values near $214K and rents of $1,008/mo sit inside a market where underwriting has to be tight.

Distressed does not mean uninvestable. It means the margin for error is thinner. ZIP 16423 rewards the prepared, punishes the overconfident, and leaves the math unchanged either way.

The gap between 16423 and stronger Lake City ZIPs is not closing quickly. Investors should weight long-horizon assumptions accordingly.

A notable renter share of 10% in 16423 is not, on its own, a problem — but paired with below-average income and high mobility, it changes the operating playbook.

Strategically, 16423 can be a high-return sleeve of a diversified portfolio — but it should not be the whole portfolio, and it should not be someone's first deal.

Explore the Data — Click a Tab Below
🏦 Current 30-yr Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.76% as of Sep 10 Source: Freddie Mac PMMS

Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Lake City:

B Good
Buy Confidence Score: 73/100
Affordability
20/25
Appreciation
25/25
Stability
7/20
Timing
6/15
Rental backup
15/15
Affordability
Affordable
Homes cost 3× the median income
Value Trend
Rising (+8.8%)
How home values changed in the past year
Rental Backup
Strong
Could rent for $1,008/mo if you need to move
Market Conditions
WARM
Seller-favorable conditions, steady activity
Bottom Line: Mixed signals in this market. Research specific properties carefully and be prepared to negotiate.
☀️
WARM MARKET
Erie, PA Metro Area
Seller-favorable conditions, steady activity
19 days
Average time to sell
Fast
10.0%
Listings with price cuts
Few Cuts
0.0%
Sale price vs asking
Below Ask
0.0%
Income needed for mortgage
Affordable
📅 Market conditions as of August 29, 2026 — updated weekly from Erie, PA metro data
🏠

Property Strategy for 16423

Which property type performs best in this market?

Best for Cash Flow
2BR
5.0% cap rate
Best for Appreciation
4BR
+8.5% 5yr CAGR
Best Overall Value
4BR
$59,060/bedroom
📊 Compare All Property Types →
Type Median Value Est. Rent Cap Rate 5yr CAGR $/Bedroom
2BR $162,204 $1,120 5.0% +8.4% $81,102
3BR $209,702 $1,390 4.8% +8.2% $69,901
4BR $236,242 $1,560 4.8% +8.5% $59,060

Market Trends

Home Value History (with trend line)

$223K$196K$169K$143K$116K$89KJul 2006Jul 2016Jul 2026

📊 How Does 16423 Compare?

Metric 16423 Lake City Erie, PA Pennsylvania
Home Value $213,571 $213,571 N/A $278,018
5-Year CAGR 7.4% 7.4% N/A 6.3%
Avg Rent $1,008 $1,008 N/A -
Cap Rate 3.7% 3.7% - -
💡 Why Invest in 16423? Click to expand

With a 3/5 investability rating, this ZIP shows solid fundamentals for buy-and-hold investors.

📊 See where this ZIP ranks in our Best-of lists →
A great house in the wrong ZIP is still a bad deal — screen every market by cash flow & cap rate.
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Landlord Ground Truth

Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 16423 (Lake City, PA). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.

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Investability
Good
Cap Rate
3.7%
Low
5yr Growth
+7.4%
Strong

📉 Market Crash Risk Index

Based on Erie, PA metro

0/10
Low Risk
Price YoY
0/3
N/A
Rent YoY
0/2
N/A
Below List
0/3
41%
Days Pending
0/2
19 days

View all metro crash risk rankings →

📊 Market Snapshot

Home Value $213,571
Monthly Rent $1,008
Price-to-Rent 17.7:1
1% Rule ✗ Fails

💰 Return Metrics

Gross Yield 5.7%
Cap Rate 3.7%
5-Year IRR 11.0%

📈 Home Appreciation

1-Year +8.8% ▲
3-Year CAGR +6.9% ▲
5-Year CAGR +7.4% ▲
10-Year CAGR +6.5% ▲

🏠 Rent Trends

1-Year N/A
3-Year CAGR N/A
5-Year CAGR N/A
Negative Leverage — IRR / Tax Play Cap Rate: 3.7%  |  30yr Rate: 6.8%
Leverage reduces cash returns at current rates.

The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (3.7%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.

Run an IRR Analysis →

⚠️ Risk Signals

Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.

Vacancy
11.1%
Moderate risk
Landlord Climate
4.0/5
Friendly
Value Trend (5yr)
+7.4%
Growing
Eviction process: Moderate Rent control: Favorable

Demographics in 16423

Population: 3,880

💰 Median Household Income
$70,529
This area
$70,529
State
$73,647
USA
$74,580
🏠 Renter Occupied
10.0%
This area
10.0%
State
23.0%
USA
34.0%
💼 Unemployment Rate
2.4%
This area
2.4%
State
-7.4%
USA
3.7%
🎓 College Educated
25.4%
This area
25.4%
State
12.3%
USA
33.7%
👤 Median Age
44.8 years
This area
44.8 years
State
25.7 years
USA
38.9 years
🏚️ Vacancy Rate
11.1%
This area
11.1%
State
14.6%
USA
10.5%
👥 Population by Ethnicity
White 90.4%
Other/Mixed 8.3%
Hispanic/Latino 3.6%
Black/African American 0.8%
Asian 0.4%
👶 Under 18
22.9%
This area
22.9%
USA
22.0%
👴 65 and Over
18.8%
This area
18.8%
USA
17.3%
📊 Poverty Rate
6.5%
This area
6.5%
USA
11.5%

Crime & Safety

🚧

Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon

We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.

Expected: Q1 2025

🎓 Schools in 16423

A+ Avg School Grade
1 Schools
10.7:1 Avg Class Size
$21,565 Avg Per Pupil

Schools in This ZIP Code

A+ Excellent

Elk Valley El Sch

📚 Pre-K – 04 Elementary
👥
553 Students
👨‍🏫
10.7:1 Class Size
💰
$21,565 Per Student
About Repit School Scores

Traditional school ratings rely heavily on standardized test scores, which often reflect family income more than school quality. Repit takes a different approach.

We evaluate schools based on factors that research shows actually impact educational outcomes:

  • Class Size — Smaller classes mean more individual attention
  • School Funding — Resources available for programs, staff, and facilities
  • Community Factors — Neighborhood characteristics that influence student success
  • School Environment — Size, type, and structure

Scores are updated annually using federal education data.

🎓 Nearby Colleges & Universities

3 Nearby
C+
Lake Erie College of Osteopathic Medicine
4,117 students · 12.9 mi
C+
Erie Institute of Technology Inc
183 students · 12.9 mi
D
Great Lakes Institute of Technology
303 students · 13.5 mi

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the best play in Lake City, PA?

For Lake City, PA, careful cash-flow rentals with hands-on management is the standard investor playbook. The market structure makes it a reasonable default approach.

How deep is the rental pool in Lake City, PA?

Expect a solid tenant pool in Lake City, PA. The rental market absorbs $1,008/mo rents without meaningful friction.

Does Lake City, PA favor landlords or tenants?

Lake City, PA operates under PA law, which is landlord-friendly overall for landlords. Expect stable treatment in typical lease and eviction cases.

Is Lake City, PA a smart market for rental property?

With a 3.0/5 investability score, Lake City, PA ranks as a solid market for rental property investors. Median prices of $214K and rents of $1,008/mo drive the underlying numbers.

What is the typical home price in Lake City, PA?

In Lake City, PA the median home value sits at $214K. Against the broader PA market, that reads as reasonable for most investors.

You know 16423 now. You don’t know where it ranks.

This page stays free — all of it. What one page can’t tell you is how 16423 compares to every other market. Investor ($19/mo) screens every U.S. ZIP by cap rate, the 1% rule, vacancy and landlord climate, and exports your shortlist.

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How 16423 ranks in Erie, PA

Every ZIP in this metro, ranked. Free.

Cash Flow → Appreciation → Affordable →
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