Real Estate Investing in Willow, Alaska (99688)

Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.

Matanuska Susitna Borough • Population: 2,542 • Data updated: September 2026

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Should you buy in 99688 (Willow, AK)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.

🏠 For Homebuyers
CAUTION
Grade D (53/100)

Proceed carefully. Weak appreciation or affordability makes this a harder case for most buyers.

📈 For Investors
MIXED
3.0 / 5 (47/100)

A middle-of-the-road market. Workable, but the best opportunities may be nearby ZIPs rather than this one.

⚠️ Risks to Know
1 flag
  • High vacancy: 61.6% of homes vacant — above national norms.

• Modeled rent — no observed market rent for this ZIP; the figure is estimated from HUD fair-market rent.

What’s happening in Willow, AK (99688)?

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3.0/ 5

Investability

Overall investment appeal

2.0/ 5

Appreciation

Long-term value growth

3.0/ 5

Cashflow ROI

Rental yield potential

Avg Home Value $271,245
Avg Monthly Rent $1,179
1% Rule ✗ Does Not Meet
Median Income $61,089
% Renters 10.6%

Market Analysis: 99688 Willow

The 99688 ZIP in Willow, AK is a local-operator market. Outside capital chasing a $271K entry has to pair deep knowledge with the discount.

On balance, the numbers look inviting — $271K purchase price, 0.0% nominal cap — the work to hit that pro forma in 99688 is substantial and deserves full respect.

Statewide comparisons place 99688 among AK's softer markets. That context does not make the ZIP uninvestable, but it does raise the bar for due diligence.

The 99688 ZIP's population of 2,542 has faced economic pressure over the last decade. That pressure shows up in rent delinquency patterns that records the need for careful underwriting.

The 99688 ZIP fits a narrow investor profile — hands-on, patient, and willing to accept that the cap rate on paper is not the cap rate in reality.

Explore the Data — Click a Tab Below
🏦 Current 30-yr Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.76% as of Sep 10 Source: Freddie Mac PMMS

Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Willow:

C+ Average
Buy Confidence Score: 63/100
Affordability
15/25
Appreciation
18/25
Stability
7/20
Timing
8/15
Rental backup
15/15
Affordability
Moderate
Homes cost 4.4× the median income
Value Trend
Rising (+5.4%)
How home values changed in the past year
Rental Backup
Strong
Could rent for $1,179/mo if you need to move
Market Conditions
BALANCED
Even conditions for buyers and sellers
Bottom Line: Mixed signals in this market. Research specific properties carefully and be prepared to negotiate.
⚖️
BALANCED MARKET
Anchorage, AK Metro Area
Even conditions for buyers and sellers
28 days
Average time to sell
Fast
12.8%
Listings with price cuts
Few Cuts
0.0%
Sale price vs asking
Below Ask
0.0%
Income needed for mortgage
Affordable
📅 Market conditions as of August 29, 2026 — updated weekly from Anchorage, AK metro data

Market Trends

Home Value History (with trend line)

$283K$252K$221K$190K$159K$128KJan 2012May 2019Jul 2026

📊 How Does 99688 Compare?

Metric 99688 Willow Anchorage, AK Alaska
Home Value $271,245 $271,245 N/A $378,640
5-Year CAGR 3.3% 3.3% N/A 3.6%
Avg Rent $1,179 $1,179 N/A -
Cap Rate 3.4% 3.4% - -

Similar ZIPs Within 25 Miles

Compare other nearby markets to see if a neighbor offers a better fit.

💡 Why Invest in 99688? Click to expand

With a 3/5 investability rating, this ZIP shows solid fundamentals for buy-and-hold investors.

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Landlord Ground Truth

Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 99688 (Willow, AK). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.

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Investability
Good
Cap Rate
3.4%
Low
5yr Growth
+3.3%
Moderate

📉 Market Crash Risk Index

Based on Anchorage, AK metro

0/10
Low Risk
Price YoY
0/3
N/A
Rent YoY
0/2
N/A
Below List
0/3
27%
Days Pending
0/2
28 days

View all metro crash risk rankings →

📊 Market Snapshot

Home Value $271,245
Monthly Rent $1,179
Price-to-Rent 19.2:1
1% Rule ✗ Fails

💰 Return Metrics

Gross Yield 5.2%
Cap Rate 3.4%
5-Year IRR 6.7%

📈 Home Appreciation

1-Year +5.4% ▲
3-Year CAGR +3.0% ▲
5-Year CAGR +3.3% ▲
10-Year CAGR +3.9% ▲

🏠 Rent Trends

1-Year N/A
3-Year CAGR N/A
5-Year CAGR N/A
Negative Leverage — IRR / Tax Play Cap Rate: 3.4%  |  30yr Rate: 6.8%
Leverage reduces cash returns at current rates.

The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (3.4%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.

Run an IRR Analysis →

⚠️ Risk Signals

Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.

Vacancy
61.6%
Elevated risk
Landlord Climate
4.0/5
Friendly
Value Trend (5yr)
+3.3%
Stable
Eviction process: Fast Rent control: Moderate

Demographics in 99688

Population: 2,542

💰 Median Household Income
$61,089
This area
$61,089
State
$64,271
USA
$74,580
🏠 Renter Occupied
10.6%
This area
10.6%
State
30.7%
USA
34.0%
💼 Unemployment Rate
5.6%
This area
5.6%
State
-13.0%
USA
3.7%
🎓 College Educated
20.5%
This area
20.5%
State
-3.6%
USA
33.7%
👤 Median Age
46.9 years
This area
46.9 years
State
2.6 years
USA
38.9 years
🏚️ Vacancy Rate
61.6%
This area
61.6%
State
37.0%
USA
10.5%
👥 Population by Ethnicity
White 85.1%
Other/Mixed 14.5%
Asian 0.4%
Hispanic/Latino 0.1%
👶 Under 18
22.5%
This area
22.5%
USA
22.0%
👴 65 and Over
21.6%
This area
21.6%
USA
17.3%
📊 Poverty Rate
10.9%
This area
10.9%
USA
11.5%

Crime & Safety

🚧

Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon

We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.

Expected: Q1 2025

🎓 Schools in 99688

A Avg School Grade
1 Schools
11.6:1 Avg Class Size
$18,753 Avg Per Pupil

Schools in This ZIP Code

A Very Good

Willow Elementary

📚 Pre-K – 05 Elementary
👥
119 Students
👨‍🏫
11.6:1 Class Size
💰
$18,753 Per Student
About Repit School Scores

Traditional school ratings rely heavily on standardized test scores, which often reflect family income more than school quality. Repit takes a different approach.

We evaluate schools based on factors that research shows actually impact educational outcomes:

  • Class Size — Smaller classes mean more individual attention
  • School Funding — Resources available for programs, staff, and facilities
  • Community Factors — Neighborhood characteristics that influence student success
  • School Environment — Size, type, and structure

Scores are updated annually using federal education data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What strategy should investors use in Willow, AK?

Investors usually favor careful cash-flow rentals with hands-on management in Willow, AK. With home values at $271K and rents near $1,179/mo, other strategies can work but produce stable rather than outsized returns.

What are vacancy rates like in Willow, AK?

Willow, AK sees elevated vacancy, which is reasonable relative to the broader AK rental market.

How strong is Willow, AK for real estate investors?

Willow, AK rates 3.0/5 for investability. With median values at $271K and rents near $1,179/mo, the market offers reasonable fundamentals for rental investors.

Does Willow, AK favor landlords or tenants?

Rental owners in Willow, AK deal with a landlord-friendly legal framework. Most standard eviction processes run on reasonable timelines.

Are homes affordable in Willow, AK?

Willow, AK median home values land near $271K. That is reasonable territory for investors looking at $1,179/mo-per-month rentals.

You know 99688 now. You don’t know where it ranks.

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How 99688 ranks in Anchorage, AK

Every ZIP in this metro, ranked. Free.

Cash Flow → Appreciation → Affordable →
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