Real Estate Investing in Bagdad, Kentucky (40003)

Everything the listing leaves out — vacancy, rent trend, cap rate, landlord climate. All free.

Shelby County • Population: 2,052 • Data updated: September 2026

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Should you buy in 40003 (Bagdad, KY)? Our answer, based on the numbers below.

🏠 For Homebuyers
MIXED
Grade C (55/100)

Mixed — values have been flat. OK for long-horizon buyers, less attractive if you may need to sell soon.

📈 For Investors
WEAK
2.0 / 5 (33/100)

Structural challenges here. The numbers may look cheap but operational risk is high. Only for experienced, hands-on investors.

⚠️ Risks to Know
2 flags
  • Declining values: -0.3% 5-year CAGR — values have moved lower.
  • 1-year downturn: Values declined 5.6% in the last year.

• Modeled rent — no observed market rent for this ZIP; the figure is estimated from HUD fair-market rent.

What’s happening in Bagdad, KY (40003)?

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2.0/ 5

Investability

Overall investment appeal

1.0/ 5

Appreciation

Long-term value growth

3.0/ 5

Cashflow ROI

Rental yield potential

Avg Home Value $234,494
Avg Monthly Rent $1,134
1% Rule ✗ Does Not Meet
Median Income $78,125
% Renters 16.3%

Market Analysis: 40003 Bagdad

Investors eyeing 40003 need to respect the fundamentals at play. Home values of $234K come alongside slower price movement and elevated management overhead.

The 40003 ZIP can work — but only with a tight operating hand. Remote landlords and passive investors tend to struggle here more than the underwriting suggests.

On the rental side, 40003 offers a low basis, the region around Bagdad has moved on in ways that the ZIP itself has not fully absorbed. The result is a discount with genuine reasons.

Demographically, 40003 is a market where tenant selection matters more than unit finishes. Operators who understand that tend to do fine; those who do not tend to learn why the ZIP trades at a discount.

The right play in 40003 usually involves deep tenant screening, aggressive delinquency response, and a conservative capex buffer. Anything less, and the discount can turn into a trap.

Explore the Data — Click a Tab Below
🏦 Current 30-yr Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.76% as of Sep 10 Source: Freddie Mac PMMS

Here's what matters if you're considering buying a home in Bagdad:

C Below Average
Buy Confidence Score: 55/100
Affordability
20/25
Appreciation
5/25
Stability
7/20
Timing
8/15
Rental backup
15/15
Affordability
Affordable
Homes cost 3× the median income
Value Trend
Declining (-5.6%)
How home values changed in the past year
Rental Backup
Strong
Could rent for $1,134/mo if you need to move
Market Conditions
BALANCED
Even conditions for buyers and sellers
Bottom Line: This market may be challenging for buyers. Consider your timing and budget carefully.

Market Trends

Home Value History (with trend line)

$277K$243K$210K$176K$143K$110KApr 2008Jun 2017Jul 2026

📊 How Does 40003 Compare?

Metric 40003 Bagdad Kentucky
Home Value $234,494 $234,494 $225,788
5-Year CAGR N/A N/A 6.9%
Avg Rent $1,134 $1,134 -
Cap Rate 3.8% 3.8% -
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Landlord Ground Truth

Real numbers from people who own or manage rentals in ZIP 40003 (Bagdad, KY). Anonymous, moderated, never written by AI.

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Investability
Fair
Cap Rate
3.8%
Low
5yr Growth
-0.3%
Declining

📊 Market Snapshot

Home Value $234,494
Monthly Rent $1,134
Price-to-Rent 17.2:1
1% Rule ✗ Fails

💰 Return Metrics

Gross Yield 5.8%
Cap Rate 3.8%
5-Year IRR 3.5%

📈 Home Appreciation

1-Year -5.6% ▼
3-Year CAGR +0.2% ▲
5-Year CAGR -0.3% ▼
10-Year CAGR +4.3% ▲

🏠 Rent Trends

1-Year N/A
3-Year CAGR N/A
5-Year CAGR N/A
Negative Leverage — IRR / Tax Play Cap Rate: 3.8%  |  30yr Rate: 6.8%
Leverage reduces cash returns at current rates.

The current 30-yr mortgage rate (6.8%) exceeds the estimated cap rate (3.8%). Financing reduces your cash-on-cash return below the cap rate. Markets like this may still make sense as IRR plays — factoring in appreciation, depreciation, and a future refinance when rates drop.

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⚠️ Risk Signals

Composite view of factors that can impact a ZIP's stability and your downside risk.

Vacancy
4.7%
Low risk
Landlord Climate
5.0/5
Friendly
Value Trend (5yr)
-0.3%
Flat
Eviction process: Fast Rent control: Favorable

Demographics in 40003

Population: 2,052

💰 Median Household Income
$78,125
This area
$78,125
State
$55,541
USA
$74,580
🏠 Renter Occupied
16.3%
This area
16.3%
State
23.6%
USA
34.0%
💼 Unemployment Rate
1.3%
This area
1.3%
State
-16.4%
USA
3.7%
🎓 College Educated
22.6%
This area
22.6%
State
-4.1%
USA
33.7%
👤 Median Age
49.8 years
This area
49.8 years
State
4.8 years
USA
38.9 years
🏚️ Vacancy Rate
4.7%
This area
4.7%
State
16.9%
USA
10.5%
👥 Population by Ethnicity
White 92.9%
Black/African American 4.6%
Other/Mixed 2.6%
Hispanic/Latino 0.7%
👶 Under 18
18.9%
This area
18.9%
USA
22.0%
👴 65 and Over
20.0%
This area
20.0%
USA
17.3%
📊 Poverty Rate
8.7%
This area
8.7%
USA
11.5%

Crime & Safety

🚧

Crime & Safety Data Coming Soon

We're integrating comprehensive crime statistics including violent crime rates, property crime, and safety scores to help you make informed investment decisions.

Expected: Q1 2025

🎓 Nearby Colleges & Universities

1 Nearby 67 Off-Campus Students
C
Kentucky State University
1,689 students · 11.2 mi

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Bagdad, KY stack up for property investment?

Yes - Bagdad, KY a 2.0/5 investability score. With $234K home prices against $1,134/mo monthly rent, the market delivers a reasonable entry point for new investors.

Are homes affordable in Bagdad, KY?

Bagdad, KY median home values land near $234K. That is reasonable territory for investors looking at $1,134/mo-per-month rentals.

Are rents high in Bagdad, KY?

Bagdad, KY rentals go for roughly $1,134/mo a month. That puts gross yield in solid territory relative to $234K acquisition costs.

Is KY a landlord-friendly state?

Landlord-friendliness in Bagdad, KY is landlord-friendly. Eviction timelines and lease enforcement are considered reasonable by most property managers.

What approach is best for Bagdad, KY real estate?

The best-fit strategy in Bagdad, KY is careful cash-flow rentals with hands-on management. That approach the rent and price profile of the market.

You know 40003 now. You don’t know where it ranks.

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How 40003 ranks in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Every ZIP in this metro, ranked. Free.

Cash Flow → Appreciation → Affordable →
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