Housing Market Crash 2026: Where Home Values Are Falling
The data does not show a national housing market crash in 2026. Of 26,286 ZIP codes measured, 11.2% had falling home values over the past year, only 2% fell by 5% or more, and the average ZIP gained 5.4%. Declines are concentrated in specific places: Johnstown, PA (down 10.9%), London, KY (down 9.5%) and a cluster of Florida metros led by Cape Coral-Fort Myers (down 3.7%, with 96.7% of its ZIPs falling).
Will the housing market crash? What the national numbers say
A crash implies broad, steep losses. The September 2026 figures show the reverse at the national level. Roughly 2,940 of the 26,286 ZIP codes measured posted lower home values than a year earlier, which leaves about 88.8% flat or rising. The share with meaningful declines is smaller still: 2% of ZIPs, or roughly 525, fell 5% or more.
The longer trend is also positive. Home values have risen an average of 4.7% per year over five years, and the latest one-year gain of 5.4% sits slightly above that pace. Rents are close to flat nationally, up 0.9% over the year, which points to a cooling rental market rather than a collapse in housing demand.
What the data does show is a set of local corrections. In some metros nearly every ZIP is falling. Those pockets are real and can matter a great deal to owners and buyers there, but they are not large enough to pull the national average below zero, or even close to it.
Where home values are falling: the ranked metros
The table below ranks metros by their average one-year change in home values, along with the share of ZIPs falling, five-year trend, rent change and average home value.
| # | Metro area | 1-yr change | 5-yr avg/yr | ZIPs falling | Avg home value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnstown, PA | -10.9% | -4.8% | 96% | $104,558 |
| 2 | London, KY | -9.5% | +2.6% | 84.2% | $137,170 |
| 3 | Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | -3.7% | +3.3% | 96.7% | $334,629 |
| 4 | Eureka-Arcata, CA | -2.8% | -4.8% | 75% | $415,433 |
| 5 | North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | -2.7% | +3.1% | 92.9% | $478,105 |
| 6 | Bowling Green, KY | -2.3% | +3.4% | 38.9% | $235,728 |
| 7 | Naples-Marco Island, FL | -2.0% | +4.9% | 93.8% | $633,458 |
| 8 | Sumter, SC | -1.7% | +0.6% | 46.7% | $163,776 |
| 9 | Savannah, GA | -1.6% | +6.7% | 77.3% | $362,728 |
| 10 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | -1.4% | +4.1% | 71.9% | $275,983 |
| 11 | Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | -0.7% | +4.2% | 73.9% | $437,999 |
| 12 | Tucson, AZ | -0.6% | +3.2% | 71.1% | $376,063 |
| 13 | Stockton, CA | -0.4% | +1.3% | 60.7% | $574,077 |
| 14 | Huntingdon, PA | -0.4% | +2.4% | 47.8% | $174,306 |
| 15 | Las Cruces, NM | -0.4% | +5.2% | 30% | $255,679 |
| 16 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | -0.3% | +4.9% | 64% | $404,505 |
| 17 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | -0.3% | +4.2% | 56.7% | $395,234 |
| 18 | Asheville, NC | -0.2% | +4.6% | 67.6% | $425,010 |
| 19 | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | +0.2% | -0.6% | 56.6% | $507,146 |
| 20 | Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA | +0.2% | +0.5% | 31.3% | $883,019 |
The two steep declines: Johnstown and London
Only two metros on the list show declines approaching 10%. Johnstown, Pennsylvania leads with a 10.9% one-year drop across 25 ZIPs, 96% of which are falling. It is also the only metro on the list that pairs a steep one-year loss with a sustained five-year decline, averaging -4.8% per year. With an average home value of $104,558, it is the cheapest market in the top 20. That gap is about 16 points below the national one-year average. Rents there still rose 3.1%, so the weakness is in ownership values rather than rental demand.
London, Kentucky fell 9.5%, with 84.2% of its 19 ZIPs down. Unlike Johnstown, its five-year trend is still positive at 2.6% per year, so the past year has erased gains rather than extending a long slide. Rent data is not available for London.
After these two, the size of declines drops sharply. The third-ranked metro is down 3.7%, and from rank 11 onward the averages are all smaller than 1% in either direction. That gap between the top two and the rest is the clearest sign that severe losses are isolated.
Florida’s broad but shallow correction
Florida accounts for six of the 20 metros on the list: Cape Coral-Fort Myers (-3.7%), North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton (-2.7%), Naples-Marco Island (-2.0%), Lakeland-Winter Haven (-1.4%), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (-0.3%) and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-0.3%). Statewide, 48.2% of Florida’s 924 measured ZIPs have falling values, about 4.3 times the national rate and the highest of any state in the data.
The Florida pattern is wide rather than deep. In Cape Coral-Fort Myers, 96.7% of ZIPs are falling; in Naples-Marco Island, 93.8%; in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, 92.9%. Yet the typical decline in each is between 2% and 4%, and the statewide average one-year change is still slightly positive at 0.6%. Five-year trends in these metros remain positive, from 3.1% to 4.9% per year, so recent losses are trimming earlier gains.
Rents are also falling across Florida’s listed metros, which separates them from Johnstown. Naples-Marco Island shows the sharpest rent drop on the list at -11.9%, and Cape Coral-Fort Myers rents fell 4.7%. When both prices and rents decline together, it suggests softer demand or more supply on both sides of the market, not just a shift between renting and owning.
Sun Belt and Western metros near zero
Several large metros appear on the list with small declines but high shares of falling ZIPs. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, with 69 ZIPs measured, has 73.9% falling but an average change of just -0.7%. Tucson has 71.1% falling at -0.6%. These are markets where most neighborhoods slipped a little rather than a few collapsing. Nevada (40.6% of ZIPs falling) and Arizona (37.7%) rank third and fourth among states, yet both still show positive statewide averages of 2.5% and 1.5%.
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown is a notable case. Its one-year average is slightly positive at 0.2%, but 56.6% of its 83 ZIPs are falling and its five-year trend is negative at -0.6% per year. That makes it one of only three metros on the list, with Johnstown and Eureka-Arcata, whose five-year average is below zero. Statewide, 26.6% of ZIPs in Texas are falling, while the average change is 2.6%.
In California, three metros make the list: Eureka-Arcata (-2.8%, five-year -4.8% per year), Stockton (-0.4%) and Santa Rosa-Petaluma (+0.2%). Eureka-Arcata matches Johnstown’s -4.8% five-year pace, though its one-year drop is much smaller. Statewide, 19.5% of California ZIPs are falling and the average change is 2.4%.
Smaller metros with mixed signals
Some smaller markets show contradictions worth noting. Sumter, SC, has values down 1.7% but rents up 19.1%, the largest rent increase on the list. Bowling Green, KY, is down 2.3% on average while only 38.9% of its ZIPs are falling, which suggests a few ZIPs with large drops rather than a uniform decline. Las Cruces, NM, has the lowest share of falling ZIPs on the list at 30% and a strong five-year trend of 5.2% per year. Savannah, GA, has the highest five-year pace of any listed metro at 6.7% per year, and its -1.6% one-year change follows that run-up.
Which states are most and least exposed
At the state level, risk clusters in the Southeast and Southwest. Florida (48.2%), Kentucky (40.8%), Nevada (40.6%) and Arizona (37.7%) have the highest shares of falling ZIPs. Kentucky is the only state among the ten with the most falling ZIPs whose average one-year change is negative, at -0.4%. Every other state on that list still shows average gains, ranging from 0.6% in Florida to 4.4% in West Virginia.
The opposite end looks very different. In Connecticut and Wisconsin, only 0.4% of ZIPs are falling. Wisconsin’s average one-year gain of 9.2% is the highest among the states listed, and Connecticut’s is 8.1%. Minnesota (1.1% falling, +7.2%), Indiana (1.3%, +6.8%) and New Hampshire (0.9%, +6.5%) follow. Florida’s share of falling ZIPs is roughly 120 times Wisconsin’s.
That split, Northeast and Upper Midwest rising steadily while parts of Florida and the Southwest soften, is the main geographic pattern in the 2026 data.
Local correction vs. national crash
Three measures help separate a localized correction from a crash:
- Breadth: In a national crash, most ZIPs would be falling. Here, 11.2% are.
- Depth: Only 2% of ZIPs are down 5% or more, and just two metros average declines near 10%.
- Persistence: Most listed metros still have positive five-year trends. Johnstown, Eureka-Arcata and Austin are the exceptions with negative five-year averages.
By those measures, Johnstown fits the description of a sustained local downturn. Florida’s Gulf Coast metros show a broad correction with modest losses. Las Vegas, Tucson, Orlando and Tampa are closer to flat, with most ZIPs edging down slightly.
What this means for different readers
Buyers in metros with high shares of falling ZIPs, such as Cape Coral-Fort Myers or Naples-Marco Island, are entering markets where values have softened after years of gains. Prices there remain well above the cheapest declining markets: Naples averages $633,458 and Santa Rosa-Petaluma $883,019, compared with $104,558 in Johnstown.
Owners in states like Wisconsin, Minnesota or Connecticut are in markets where almost no ZIPs are falling. Owners in Florida, Kentucky or Nevada face a meaningful chance that their specific ZIP has declined, even when the state average is positive.
Landlords and investors should look at rent alongside values. Falling rents in Florida metros and Asheville (-5.2%) mean lower prices are not automatically paired with stronger rental income, while Johnstown and Sumter show rising rents despite falling values.
For a ranking that weighs multiple risk factors, see the housing crash risk index. For markets with the most stable values, see the safest housing markets.
What the data covers and what it doesn’t
These figures cover home value and rent changes by ZIP, aggregated to metros and states, as of September 2026. They do not include mortgage rates, inventory, days on market, foreclosure activity or local incomes, so they cannot explain why a given market is falling or forecast whether declines will continue. They describe where weakness is visible today, not when or whether it will spread.
Frequently asked questions
Will the housing market crash in 2026?
The September 2026 data does not show a national crash. Only 11.2% of 26,286 ZIP codes had falling home values over the past year, and the average ZIP rose 5.4%.
Where are home prices falling the most?
Johnstown, PA leads with an average one-year decline of 10.9%, followed by London, KY at 9.5% and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL at 3.7%. Florida has six of the 20 metros with the biggest declines.
Which state has the most ZIP codes with falling home values?
Florida, where 48.2% of 924 measured ZIPs have falling values, though its statewide average change is still up 0.6%. Kentucky (40.8%) and Nevada (40.6%) follow.
Which states have the most stable home values?
Connecticut and Wisconsin each have just 0.4% of ZIPs falling, with average one-year gains of 8.1% and 9.2%. New Hampshire, Minnesota and Indiana also have under 1.5% of ZIPs falling.
How many ZIP codes have seen large home value drops?
About 2% of measured ZIP codes, roughly 525 of 26,286, have fallen 5% or more over the past year.
Sources and methodology
One-year and five-year home value and rent changes are from Repit's ZIP-level data as of September 2026, limited to ZIP codes that pass Repit's data-quality checks; metro and state figures are simple averages across their ZIP codes. Declines describe recent price movement, not a forecast.